Anthony Ubani argues in this editorial opinion that the tragedy of Nigeria’s democracy is amplified by an electorate that has stopped believing that their vote matters
There is a quiet tragedy unfolding in Nigeria’s democracy, and it is not the kind that makes headlines. It is the tragedy of a people who have stopped believing that their vote matters. In the 2023 general elections, out of 93.4 million registered voters, only 24.9 million cast their ballots, a turnout of 26.72 percent, the lowest since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999.
To put it plainly: roughly three out of every four Nigerians who could vote chose not to. And of those who did vote, barely 9 million voted for the man who now governs over 200 million people
These are not just numbers. They are a mirror held up to a nation wrestling with disillusionment.
The decline did not happen overnight. In 2003, voter turnout stood at a healthy 69 percent. By 2011, it had dropped to 53.7 percent. In 2015, it fell further to 43.7 percent, then to 34.75 percent in 2019, before crashing to 27 percent in 2023
This is not a trend; it is a collapse. And it places Nigeria among the ten countries with the lowest voter turnout in the world
When Rwanda records a 98 percent turnout and Nigeria struggles to get a quarter of its people to the polls, the gap is not merely statistical, it is existential.
This is the democratic wound that #FixPolitics has been working to confront. Across its reform advocacy, civic education, voter awareness, and citizen engagement work, #FixPolitics has consistently argued that electoral reform must do one central thing: return power to the electorate. Elections are not rituals for political elites to manage among themselves. They are the sovereign instrument through which citizens hire, reward, discipline, and remove leaders. That is why #FixPolitics continues to advocate reforms that make votes count, while also educating and sensitizing citizens to understand the power of their vote and the duty to participate effectively in the political process.
The Anatomy of Disengagement
Why are Nigerians walking away from the ballot box? The reasons are layered, and they demand honest conversation.
First, there is the failure of democracy to deliver tangible development. Idayat Hassan, former director of the Centre for Democracy and Development, puts it plainly: “The failure of democracy to deliver development has made many to not have interest in participating in elections”
When roads remain broken, hospitals lack basic supplies, and young graduates roam the streets unemployed, the promise of democracy begins to feel like a cruel joke. Why queue for hours under the sun when the outcome, many feel, will not change the texture of their daily lives?
Second, there is violence and voter intimidation. The 2023 elections were marked by what observers described as an unprecedented surge in covert threats and intimidation. In Rivers State, armed gangs circulated a chilling message: “If you are not going to vote for the PDP, don’t come out.”
The result? Rivers recorded the lowest voter turnout in the entire country at 15.6 percent, despite having over 3.5 million registered voters
In Lagos, voters were told they would be flogged if they did not vote for the incumbent.
In Kano, an elderly woman who had voted in nearly every election since the 1980s stayed home in 2023 because, as she said, “I was afraid of violence, so I didn’t go out or allow my daughters to go and vote.”
Across the country, 10.8 percent of observed polling units recorded violence or fighting, with the northwest and south-south hit hardest.
The Centre for Democracy and Development documented 238 cases of election violence during the 2023 cycle, resulting in 24 deaths and close to 900 victims
When casting a ballot becomes an act of courage rather than a civic routine, something fundamental has broken.
Third, there is institutional failure. On election day, only 41 percent of polling units had commenced voting by 9:30 a.m., an hour after the scheduled start time.
INEC officials arrived late in many places. In Port Harcourt, materials did not reach some polling units until 2 p.m., and officials left just two hours later.
The Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), hailed as a technological breakthrough, experienced glitches. And perhaps most damaging, INEC failed to upload results from polling units in real time as it had promised, casting a shadow over the credibility of the entire process.
When the electoral body itself has only 23 percent public trust going into an election, the foundation is already cracked.
Fourth, there is the geographic and ethnic fragmentation of the vote. In 2023, voters who did turn out were concentrated in the “home” communities of the leading candidates, suggesting that ethno-religious identity, rather than policy or performance, increasingly drives voting behavior.
In heterogeneous states like Lagos, this heightened competition produced significant voter intimidation and violence during the governorship polls.
The result is a politics of “us versus them” that deepens division and further alienates citizens who do not feel they belong to the winning coalition.
And then there is the youth. More than 70 percent of the 9 million new voters added to the register before the 2023 elections were young people.
They were energized, vocal on social media, and seemingly ready to reshape Nigerian politics. Yet on election day, their turnout was swallowed by the same forces of disillusionment, fear, and logistical failure that have plagued the electorate for decades. A study of final-year secondary school students in Lagos found that while students with higher civic knowledge were more willing to vote, contact politicians, and protest, they actively rejected party membership and campaigning—activities they associated with corruption and violence.
This is not apathy. It is a principled, almost wounded, withdrawal from a system they see as rotten.
The Cost of Silence
The consequences of this mass disengagement are severe and far-reaching. When a president is elected by less than 10 percent of the electorate, his mandate is thin, and his legitimacy is fragile
When citizens feel their votes do not count, they lose faith not just in elections but in the very idea of democratic governance. Electoral violence, already a scourge, becomes self-reinforcing: low turnout emboldens those who would manipulate the process, which in turn drives even more voters away. Foreign investors grow wary of a country where political instability is the norm.
Nigeria’s international image suffers. And most painfully, the voices of the poor, the marginalized, and the young are systematically excluded from the decisions that shape their lives.
At the heart of this work is a simple conviction: sovereignty belongs to citizens. Democracy cannot survive on paper if citizens no longer trust the process that produces leaders, the institutions that manage that process, or the elected officials who claim a mandate from it. Once that trust collapses, elections become ceremonies without consent, governments become legal but not legitimate, and democracy becomes an empty performance. This is why voter confidence is not a soft issue. It is the foundation on which democratic authority rests.
Path Forward
Reversing this decline will require more than voter registration drives and social media campaigns. It will require a fundamental reimagining of what it means to be a citizen in Nigeria, and what it means for the state to earn that citizenship.
One: Make voting safe. The most urgent task is to guarantee the physical security of voters. This means deploying adequate security personnel to polling units, but more importantly, it means prosecuting those who perpetrate electoral violence, whether they are political thugs, party agents, or sitting governors who issue terrorist threats against their opponents.
Impunity is the oxygen that fuels electoral violence. Until perpetrators face real consequences, the threats will continue. The 2023 elections saw fewer deaths than previous cycles, 161 compared to 197 in 2019 and 240 in 2015, but the number of violent incidents actually increased, with covert intimidation becoming the weapon of choice.
Security agencies must adapt to this shift, focusing not just on visible violence but on the whispered threats that keep voters at home.
Two: Fix the logistics. INEC must address the chronic delays in opening polling units and distributing materials. The 2023 elections were the most expensive in Nigeria’s history, with a budget of N305 billion.
Yet less than half of eligible voters could participate. That is not a resource problem; it is a management problem. INEC should conduct a thorough voter register audit to remove the names of deceased and ineligible voters, as recommended by the Centre for Democracy and Development.
It should also expand the use of technology not as a publicity tool but as a genuine accountability mechanism, ensuring that results are uploaded in real time from every polling unit.
Seen against this background, the 2026 Electoral Act is not progress. It is a step backwards. By failing to close the loopholes that made the 2023 elections so controversial, especially around real-time electronic transmission and transparent result management, it risks endorsing a repeat of the fraud, opacity, violence, and confusion that shattered public confidence in 2023. A law that leaves room for manipulation does not strengthen democracy; it weakens it. It tells citizens that the polling unit may once again be only the first stop in a long journey to the courtroom. That is dangerous, because elections should be decided by citizens’ votes, not by lawyers, technicalities, and judges after the damage has already been done.
Three: Invest in civic education. Nigeria made civic education mandatory in primary and secondary schools in 2009, a full decade after the return to democracy.
But implementation has been inconsistent, and the curriculum often lacks practical engagement components.
Civic education should not be a peripheral subject taught from outdated textbooks. It should be a living, breathing part of the school experience, involving mock elections, debates, community projects, and critical discussions about corruption and governance. Research from Ghana, South Africa, and Kenya shows that robust civic education initiatives can significantly enhance democratic resilience.
Nigeria must learn from its neighbors. And civic education must extend beyond the classroom. Adult literacy programs, community radio, and digital campaigns targeting rural populations can all play a role in building what scholars call “civic literacy”, the knowledge and confidence citizens need to hold their leaders accountable
Four: Make democracy deliver. This is perhaps the hardest and most important step. Citizens will not vote if they do not believe voting changes anything. The connection between the ballot box and basic services, security, roads, water, healthcare, jobs, must become visible and direct. Local government elections, which are often the most neglected tier of governance, should be given real attention and resources. When citizens see that their votes translate into tangible improvements in their communities, participation will rise naturally. Conversely, when elected officials perform poorly and face no electoral consequences, the cycle of cynicism deepens.
Five: Empower the youth. Nigeria is a young country. The median age is roughly 18, and the youth bulge is only growing. Yet young Nigerians feel locked out of a political system dominated by older elites. Political parties must create genuine pathways for youth leadership, not just token appointments. The “Not Too Young to Run” Act was a symbolic victory, but symbols do not build power. Young Nigerians need campaign financing reform, mentorship programs, and a political culture that values ideas over pedigree. The fact that knowledgeable young people reject party politics because they see it as corrupt is not a sign of failure in civic education, it is a sign of failure in our political parties. That must change.
Six: Rebuild trust through transparency. INEC’s failure to upload results in real time during the 2023 elections was a severe blow to public confidence.
Rebuilding that trust will require not just better technology but better communication. INEC should publish detailed, ward-level data on voter registration, turnout, and results. It should engage regularly with civil society, the media, and the public. And it should welcome, not resist, independent election observation. The 2023 elections saw over 200,000 calls processed by INEC’s Citizens Contact Centre, a sign that Nigerians want to engage, if only the system will meet them halfway.
Closing Thought
Democracy is not a gift. It is a garden that must be tended, season after season, with patience and sweat and, yes, with hope. Nigeria’s electorate is not lazy or indifferent. Nigerians are among the most resilient, resourceful, and politically aware people on the continent. But resilience has its limits. When the ballot becomes a source of fear rather than power, when the polling unit becomes a place of danger rather than dignity, even the most committed citizen will eventually turn away.
The 2023 elections were a wake-up call, not because they were uniquely flawed, but because they laid bare a truth that has been building for two decades: Nigeria’s democracy is bleeding out from the inside, not through coups or revolution, but through the slow, quiet withdrawal of the very people it is meant to serve. The task ahead is not to shame Nigerians into voting. It is to build a system worthy of their participation. It is to make the polling unit a place where a mother can take her daughter without fear, where a young graduate can cast his first vote with pride, and where an elderly woman in Kano can once again believe that her voice, small as it may seem, still matters in the great chorus of a nation.
That is the democracy Nigeria deserves. And that is the democracy Nigerians must demand, at the ballot box, in the streets, and in the quiet, persistent work of citizenship that happens long before election day. Democracy, like a river, must be kept flowing by those who drink from it.
Anthony Ubani is the Executive Director #FixPolitics Africa; he writes from Abuja, Nigeria.
